Why is there only one Elon Musk? Why is there so much low-hanging fruit?

https://guzey.com/why-is-there-only-one-elon-musk/

Been thinking about this tweet of mine a lot lately: https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1260212436977823747

Thoughts?

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Musk was able to keep an independent viewpoint because he made his money very quickly in one of the most lucrative frontier environments in human history. He may have not been capable of succeeding in a system that required compromising one’s values over a long period to succeed.

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The twitter-sphere is pathologically afflicted by stakeholder constraints, in my opinion.

People get trained to produce content that the hive supports and believe this is independent thought – even OP would be guilty of this in many cases I think.

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These are all very good points. Yes, I’ve been noticing this thought pattern creep as well.

“By having every smart teenager in mid 2010s read it, HPMOR might’ve destroyed trillions worth of value just by this single line”

How much future value is being destroyed today by thought-pattern creep on twitter?

re: stakeholder constraints – an alternative way of looking at this is that this is exactly what gets the founders the outcomes they are interested in and by participating you are in fact agreeing to follow their vision to an extent, which of course applies anytime you join something as a non-founding member… and if the founders’ vision is good, then perhaps it makes sense for many people to work on them and to try to realize them!

I collected my thoughts on it here. Gist is that the traits that makeup Musk are highly disagreeable and the cost of allowing disagreeable traits might be higher than we should accept from most people. Thus we end up clipping the disagreeable wings of those people that it would be beneficial to tolerate it from. Might this tradeoff be acceptable in the aggregate?

Hmm this post is kind of depressing to me but incredibly insightful and also inspiring in ways.

I think Pioneer and Emergent Ventures arre significant progress on this though.

it’s a tragedy that some very capable people convince themselves that there’s no way they can make an impact on something they truly care about or can’t figure out what they care about in the first place. One way out of this is spending time with and trying to draw specific actionable conclusions out of Aaron Swartz’s Theory of Change

Interesting point. A lot of people I knew in academia went into research wanting to make a difference (sometimes in a specific area) but without a plan of action. But the people who stuck around and were successful seemed to all have a clear Theory of Change for their own careers which they followed relentlessly, often at the exclusion of working on, or even attempting to identify, what they cared about.

99th percentile of ambition

I think that the common understanding of ambition focuses on speed rather than direction. When one hasn’t yet figured out what they care about it may be better to focus on that (and/or acquiring resources to act on their cause when they identify it). My impression is that most start-up founders try to go fast in the direction that they think they can make the most progress, even if it isn’t something they really care about (or they are just in it for the money). Although conversely, some people who know what they care about seem to pursue it in very low-leverage ways. Musk seems to have been very good at picking the right direction then going fast - I don’t how much of this was down to planning or luck.

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I think you need to take a more historical view. Historically there have been bursts of progress at certain times and places, but mostly (default) stasis. So human nature tends toward stasis, but sometimes the right historical situation arises for faster progress. That being the case, it’s not about particular people per se who have exceptional traits, though that is necessary. Rather, those traits exists, but need the right historical situation against their talents to have a match that results in genius.

In other words, if you rerun the tape of history again with slight butterfly flapping changes, it’s unclear if Einstein emerges or merely stays a patent clerk. I’m quite sure that Steve Jobs had just the right historical contingent situation. If run again, he might have launched the Apple II, but I doubt the Mac, and certainly not the iPhone. And Musk is similar of course. He got in the right contingent place at the right time, with the right peers (PayPal mafia), so his natural talents and ambitions got channeled into greatness.

But bigger picture, I agree with your thesis but would state it differently. Let’s go back through history for the past 30 years, and select the top 10 geniuses. BY DEFINITION, by the selection criteria itself, they are at the extreme in their traits. If you select the top 10 out of (let’s call it a round) 10 billion people, then those top 10 will be…wait for it…10 out of a 10 billion in percentile. Or 1 in a billion. Shocker! The math solves itself! :slight_smile:

@ntaylor963 The point about math solving itself is of course true but this line of reasoning still is very good at illustration why there are so few people who are good at many things, even though there are a ton of people around…

@guzey What makes you think he is really good at many things? As in starting successful tech companies kind of good—agreed, true, but he’s an engineer after all. There are tens if not hundreds people like him. I think the Elon Musk phenomena is quite self-explanatory if you look at him and his twitter. A beautiful powerful wealthy man with a sense of humor questioning authority. I can’t think of anything he lacks in terms of popularity factors.

But those random intrigues regarding future features of his products? It impacts the market in seconds. Oh, and he has an army of fans, who never seen him bald, don’t believe in anything controversial about him, never heard about half a bil in tax breaks from California (maybe even more) nor that he has 54% of his Tesla shares (~$15 billion) as collateral in loans (another half a bil).

Don’t know if I want another Elon Musk, honestly. I just hope this one won’t stop delivering. Not trying to cancel him: I admire how reactive he is, how he dictates what the future will look like and especially how the world reacts, speeding up the progress. But I don’t think there should be more people, who could manipulate the state of economy that easily. I doubt Elon is the problem, though :)

UPD. Mhm, I brushed my memory on the post and figured me jumping on Elon was absolutely unnecessary. Well, now I think about that Scott Alexander post—The Parable Of The Talents. Basically, my idea now is that combination of “really good at languages” and “really good at math” is extremely rare. Maybe multiple people starting a successful company is more common, because everyone utilizes what they’re best at? But Elon seems to have problems when he speaks, interesting…

Come on, he is not just starting successful tech companies… He started 3 companies in totally different areas and literally revolutionized several industries. Tesla alone is worth several times more than the entire YC